Bengals vs. Ravens

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T16:55:28.403Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

60.5%bid 60.0% / ask 61.0%24h volume $481K · liquidity $1.1Mas of 25 Oct, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

47.8%against a market price of 51.5% at the timeYES
Logged 21 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Brier 0.2730
- Head-to-head history gives the Bengals a 40% base rate in this rivalry; Baltimore has held a modest edge in the recent series.
- Spread-cover history (Bengals covered 4 of 10) corroborates that these games are typically competitive and close, so the moneyline outcome should stay near the head-to-head base rate rather than lopsided.
- Lamar Jackson missed the open portion of practice on October 21 with an ankle injury — genuine signal, not narrative, given it occurred during game-week preparation; his absence or limitation materially lowers Baltimore's win probability and is the main upward adjustment from base.
- Current form roughly cancels: the Ravens (4-2) hold a slightly better record than the Bengals (3-2), but Baltimore is coming off a low-scoring 13-10 loss to Cleveland while Cincinnati recently beat Miami, muting any large form-based adjustment either way.
- Venue could not be established; if the game is in Baltimore, home-field advantage would push the estimate back toward the base rate, so no home-edge adjustment is made in either direction.
- Kyle Dugger's return to practice is minor positive news for the Bengals' defense but a small factor relative to the Jackson question.
What would change it: Confirmed news that Lamar Jackson will start and is fully healthy would pull the estimate back to roughly the 0.38–0.40 base rate; conversely, confirmation that he is ruled out would push it to ~0.55.
Settlement sourcet-0265

Polymarket prices this at 60.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $480,757 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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