Barcelona wins by more than 1.5 goals?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has no two-sided book right now, so there is no price to show. The contract is still listed; nobody is quoting both sides of it.
Crossbook forecast
- 43.0%against a market price of 46.0% at the timeYES
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 02:26 UTC · Brier 0.3249
- Without the specific opponent, venue, or lineups confirmed, I anchor near the reference-class rate for a Barcelona-caliber side covering -1.5, which sits around 40–45% depending on opponent strength.
- Soccer is high-variance at low goal counts: even dominant teams win by exactly one goal ~20–25% of the time, which caps how far above ~50% this should go absent evidence of a total mismatch.
- The market's 46% is within a few points of my estimate, and with only ~$2k volume the price is a weak signal; the small gap likely reflects thin liquidity plus either a slightly soft opponent or retail optimism about Barcelona rather than informed divergence.
What would change it: Confirmation of a weak opponent at home with Barcelona fielding a full-strength attack would push this toward 55%, while a strong away fixture, rotation, or key attacking injuries would push it below 35%.
Settlement source
Context
Kalshi prices this at 99%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $870,883 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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