Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 46.0%against a market price of 40.5% at the timeYES
Logged 18 Aug 2026, 01:47 UTC · Brier 0.2916
- Outside view: Poisson with lambda ~1.15 gives ~32% for 1H O1.5 across typical league matches; cup/friendly fixtures with big quality gaps run higher, often 42–50%, because heavy favorites score early against weaker defenses.
- Inside view (signal): Arsenal vs Coventry is a large talent mismatch — an elite PL attack versus a Championship defense — which historically lifts first-half goal rates as favorites tend to score early; this justifies a meaningful upward adjustment from the base rate.
- Inside view (narrative risk): the August date and cross-division pairing suggest a cup tie or friendly where rotation, experimental lineups, and lower intensity are plausible; that uncertainty caps my adjustment, and my 46% is close to the market's 40.5%, with the small gap plausibly explained by traders pricing in rotation risk.
- Time-decay is minimal: the match resolves in days and goals arrive stochastically, so the main residual uncertainty is lineup news rather than anything unfolding over time.
What would change it: Confirmed team news showing Arsenal fielding a heavily rotated or youth-heavy lineup, or the fixture being a low-intensity friendly, would push my estimate down toward the low-30s.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 42%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $29,620 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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