Hornets vs. Clippers
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-15T01:40:28.672Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
46.5%bid 46.0% / ask 47.0%24h volume $2K · liquidity $20Kas of 15 Nov, 01:40 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 13 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC
- The Clippers carry the home-side base rate of 55.3%, which is the only verified structural edge in this matchup; absent a confirmed spread, the home-court prior does the work.
- Record quality slightly favors Charlotte (4-8 vs. the Clippers' 2-8, with Charlotte's latest loss a five-point margin against the Clippers' 23-point margin), which pushes the estimate down from the home prior rather than up.
- Injuries hit the Clippers harder on the wing and in the backcourt (Beal out until Nov 29, Ingram out until Nov 19, J. Miller out until March) while Charlotte's most significant absence is Knueppel with Miller a game-time decision, so the net injury signal trims the Clippers' edge further.
- The market resolution covers only Hornets or Clippers with no draw; with two days to tip and no confirmed starting lineups or spread, I leave the estimate close to a coin flip rather than chase a narrow edge.
What would change it: A published sportsbook consensus spread of Clippers -3 or more (or Hornets -1 or more) would move this estimate materially toward the favored side.
+4.8 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Home teams won 55.3% of NBA regular-season games from 2021-22 through 2025-26, and the retrieved context places this game at the Clippers' Intuit Dome, making the Clippers the home side.
Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.
Formed blind at 51.0%, without sight of the price; published at 46.3%, the market’s 41.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.
What this call was reading
- Home teams won 55.3% of NBA regular-season games from 2021-22 through 2025-26. [web:18] as of 2026-04-12 · vertizesports.com
- Charlotte had a 4-8 regular-season record after its November 12 game. [web:7] as of 2026-11-12 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Charlotte lost 101-96 to Phoenix on November 12, a five-point margin. [web:7] as of 2026-11-12 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Clippers had a 2-8 regular-season record after their November 10 game. [web:31] as of 2026-11-10 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Clippers lost 133-110 to Phoenix on November 10, a 23-point margin. [web:31] as of 2026-11-10 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Brandon Miller was listed as a game-time decision with a groin issue for Charlotte's November 15 game. [web:16] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Kon Knueppel was listed out with a hamstring injury for Charlotte, with an estimated return date of December 12. [web:16] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Dennis Schroder was listed out with a hamstring injury for Charlotte, with an estimated return date of November 25. [web:16] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Brandon Ingram was listed out with an Achilles injury for the Clippers, with an estimated return date of November 19. [web:7] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Yanic Konan Niederhauser was listed out with a foot injury for the Clippers, with an estimated return date of November 17. [web:7] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Bradley Beal was listed out with a knee injury for the Clippers, with an estimated return date of November 29. [web:7] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Jordan Miller was listed out with a shoulder injury for the Clippers, with an estimated return date of March 2. [web:7] as of 2026-11-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Polymarket prices this at 46.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,871 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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This call is line t-0309 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.