Texans vs. Browns: O/U 40.5
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-15T01:40:28.672Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
50.5%bid 50.0% / ask 51.0%24h volume $1K · liquidity $189Kas of 15 Nov, 01:40 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 13 Nov 2026, 16:01 UTC
- The base rate for NFL games with closing totals of 39.5-41.5 is 53.1% over, providing a slightly positive prior for the over.
- Houston scored 44 points in its most recent game, indicating offensive explosiveness that could push the total higher.
- Cleveland's last game was a low-scoring 23-22 loss, but Deshaun Watson's return at quarterback may boost offensive production compared to the backup's performance.
- Houston's running back injuries to Woody Marks and David Montgomery could limit their rushing attack and overall offensive output.
- Both teams have defensive injuries that might make them more vulnerable to scoring, potentially increasing the total.
What would change it: If either team's offense underperforms significantly due to the listed injuries or other factors, resulting in a combined score below 41 points.
+3.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Since the start of the 2021 NFL season, games with closing totals between 39.5 and 41.5 have gone over 53.1% of the time (130 of 245, with 3 pushes).
Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.
Formed blind at 55.0%, without sight of the price; published at 51.7%, the market’s 48.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.
What this call was reading
- For NFL games with closing totals from 39.5 to 41.5 since the start of the 2021 season, 130 of 245 went over (53.1%), 112 went under (45.7%), and 3 pushed (1.2%). as of 2026-11-13 · teamrankings.com · within 14 days of this call
- Houston beat the Los Angeles Chargers 44-22 on November 8, a 22-point margin. as of 2026-11-08 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- Cleveland lost to the New Orleans Saints 23-22 in overtime on November 8, a one-point margin. as of 2026-11-08 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Browns announced that Deshaun Watson will start at quarterback against Houston after missing the previous game while in concussion protocol. as of 2026-11-11 · clevelandbrowns.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Texans' November 12 injury report listed running back Woody Marks as having missed Thursday practice with a knee injury and gave no game status. as of 2026-11-12 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Texans' November 12 injury report listed running back David Montgomery as limited at Thursday practice with a groin injury and gave no game status. as of 2026-11-12 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Texans' November 12 injury report listed linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair as having missed Wednesday and Thursday practice with a groin injury and gave no game status. as of 2026-11-12 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Browns' November 12 injury report listed wide receiver Denzel Boston as having missed Wednesday and Thursday practice with a toe injury and gave no game status. as of 2026-11-12 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Browns' November 12 injury report listed safety Ronnie Hickman Jr. as having missed Wednesday and Thursday practice while in concussion protocol and gave no game status. as of 2026-11-12 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
- The Browns' November 12 injury report listed tight end Harold Fannin Jr. as limited at Wednesday and Thursday practice with a groin injury and gave no game status. as of 2026-11-12 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
Polymarket prices this at 50.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,142 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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This call is line t-0308 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.