The Crossbook Record #3

24–30 Aug 2026 · Published scorecard

23 published21 resolved

Crossbook Brier0.2654Market on the same calls0.2656Crossbook is ahead by 0.0002

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed.

What resolved · worst scored first

Aug 28, 26PMGoogle Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?3.0%vs 29.0%-26.0ptYES0.9409
Aug 28, 26PMWill Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?91.0%vs 13.7%+77.3ptNO0.8281
Aug 30, 26PMNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?13.0%vs 54.5%-41.5ptYES0.7569
Aug 25, 26PMWill Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?17.0%vs 26.5%-9.5ptYES0.6889
Aug 25, 26PMWill Newcastle United FC win on 2026-08-29?38.0%vs 31.5%+6.5ptYES0.3844
Aug 24, 26PMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?40.0%vs 36.4%+3.6ptYES0.3600
Aug 26, 26PMSpread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)44.0%vs 59.5%-15.5ptYES0.3136
Aug 26, 26PMJuventus FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.553.0%vs 57.5%-4.5ptNO0.2809
Aug 30, 26PMDetroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians47.0%vs 59.0%-12.0ptNO0.2209
Aug 28, 26PMWill Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30?46.0%vs 42.5%+3.5ptNO0.2116
Aug 26, 26PMJuventus FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: 1st Half O/U 1.544.0%vs 36.5%+7.5ptNO0.1936
Aug 28, 26PMWill Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?33.0%vs 41.4%-8.4ptNO0.1089
Aug 28, 26PMWill SC Lourel vs. SC Angrense end in a draw?27.0%vs 97.2%-70.2ptNO0.0729
Aug 28, 26PMIsrael military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?26.0%vs 29.9%-3.9ptNO0.0676
Aug 28, 26PMWill SG Sacavenense vs. Real SC end in a draw?24.0%vs 98.0%-74.1ptNO0.0576
Aug 28, 26PMWill Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?82.0%vs 87.0%-5.0ptYES0.0324
Aug 26, 26PMNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?14.0%vs 22.0%-8.0ptNO0.0196
Aug 28, 26PMWill Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?87.0%vs 91.3%-4.3ptYES0.0169
Aug 28, 26PMIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?11.0%vs 14.6%-3.6ptNO0.0121
Aug 28, 26PMWill Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?6.0%vs 10.2%-4.2ptNO0.0036
Aug 28, 26PMWill Iran target Bahrain by August 31, 2026?4.0%vs 8.0%-4.0ptNO0.0016

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

Aug 18, 26PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?23.0%vs 28.5%-5.5pt
Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt

Open at the close of this edition

Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
Aug 29, 26PMWill Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's US Open?13.0%vs 0.5%+12.4pt