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The Crossbook Record #2

17–23 Aug 2026 · Published scorecard

31 published26 resolved
Crossbook Brier0.1570Market on the same calls0.1415Crossbook is behind by 0.0156

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed.

What resolved · worst scored first

  • Aug 23, 26KSSri Lanka vs India match: India wins70.0%vs 73.0%-3.0ptNO0.4900
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?70.0%vs 10.9%+59.1ptNO0.4900
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill Russia target Kyiv on August 28, 2026?31.0%vs 35.5%-4.5ptYES0.4761
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23?66.0%vs 62.5%+3.5ptNO0.4356
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on August 28?63.0%vs 68.5%-5.5ptNO0.3969
  • Aug 23, 26KSBarcelona wins by more than 1.5 goals?43.0%vs 46.0%-3.0ptYES0.3249
  • Aug 18, 26PMArsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.546.0%vs 40.5%+5.5ptYES0.2916
  • Aug 23, 26KSLos Angeles vs Los Angeles Pro Football game: LA Rams wins?53.0%vs 58.0%-5.0ptYES0.2209
  • Aug 21, 26PMCincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe46.0%vs 50.5%-4.5ptNO0.2116
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?42.0%vs 46.5%-4.5ptNO0.1764
  • Aug 18, 26PMChiefs vs. Buccaneers41.0%vs 31.5%+9.5ptNO0.1681
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?31.0%vs 38.0%-7.0ptNO0.0961
  • Aug 18, 26PMWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?72.0%vs 68.5%+3.5ptYES0.0784
  • Aug 18, 26PMWill Real Racing Club win on 2026-08-23?25.0%vs 21.5%+3.5ptNO0.0625
  • Aug 17, 26PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21?78.0%vs 83.5%-5.5ptYES0.0484
  • Aug 21, 26PMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?82.0%vs 88.5%-6.6ptYES0.0324
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26?16.0%vs 12.5%+3.5ptNO0.0256
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill Darline Graham Nordone win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?87.0%vs 93.5%-6.5ptYES0.0169
  • Aug 17, 26PMIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?10.0%vs 15.0%-5.0ptNO0.0100
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 26?90.0%vs 96.0%-6.0ptYES0.0100
  • Aug 17, 26PMIran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?8.0%vs 11.5%-3.5ptNO0.0064
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?92.0%vs 95.0%-3.0ptYES0.0064
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?5.0%vs 23.0%-18.0ptNO0.0025
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026?4.5%vs 8.5%-4.0ptNO0.0020
  • Aug 23, 26PMWill Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?4.1%vs 7.5%-3.4ptNO0.0017
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026?3.5%vs 9.5%-6.0ptNO0.0012
  • Aug 20, 26PMWill the fight be won by submission?20.0%vs 32.5%-12.5ptVOID
  • Aug 18, 26PMWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 17 2026?71.0%vs 77.5%-6.5ptNO

    not scored: logged after the event had already started

  • Aug 20, 26PMWill England win?90.0%vs 95.3%-5.2ptVOID

    not scored: logged after the event had already started

  • Aug 18, 26PMCincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils14.0%vs 7.5%+6.5ptVOID

    not scored: logged after the event had already started

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

  • Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt

Open at the close of this edition

  • Aug 18, 26PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?23.0%vs 28.5%-5.5pt