The Crossbook Record #4
31 Aug – 6 Sept 2026 · Published scorecard
How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.
Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed. This is a small sample and is not evidence of an edge either way.
What resolved · worst scored first
- Sep 2, 26PMWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?14.0%vs 78.0%-64.0ptYES0.7396
- Sep 1, 26PMToledo vs. Michigan State75.0%vs 21.5%+53.5ptNO0.5625
- Sep 1, 26PMSpread: Georgia Tech (-7.5)48.0%vs 43.0%+5.0ptNO0.2304
- Sep 1, 26PMWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?79.0%vs 82.5%-3.5ptYES0.0441
- Sep 1, 26PMWill Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?12.0%vs 6.5%+5.5ptNO0.0144
Still open from earlier editions
Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.
- Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
- Aug 29, 26PMWill Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's US Open?13.0%vs 0.5%+12.4pt
- Aug 18, 26PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?23.0%vs 28.5%-5.5pt
- Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt
Open at the close of this edition
- Sep 7, 26PMFed rate hike in 2026?63.0%vs 70.5%-7.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMWill Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?44.0%vs 18.5%+25.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09?74.0%vs 93.5%-19.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMSeahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.546.0%vs 56.0%-10.0pt
- Sep 7, 26PMOklahoma vs. Michigan58.0%vs 68.0%-10.0pt
- Sep 7, 26PMSpread: Oklahoma (-1.5)52.0%vs 65.0%-13.0pt
- Sep 7, 26PMWill Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?20.0%vs 12.5%+7.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?58.0%vs 66.5%-8.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMIsrael military action against Lebanon on September 10?63.0%vs 77.5%-14.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMPatriots vs. Seahawks42.0%vs 37.5%+4.5pt
- Sep 7, 26PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?41.0%vs 54.5%-13.5pt
- Sep 5, 26PMWill Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?57.0%vs 82.5%-25.5pt
- Sep 5, 26PMWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?57.0%vs 79.5%-22.5pt
- Sep 3, 26PMWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?20.0%vs 26.0%-6.0pt
- Sep 3, 26PMWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?30.0%vs 33.5%-3.5pt
- Sep 3, 26PMWill George Russell win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?24.0%vs 28.5%-4.5pt
- Sep 3, 26PMLacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?63.0%vs 68.5%-5.5pt
- Sep 2, 26PMWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?94.0%vs 99.1%-5.1pt
- Sep 2, 26PMWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?24.0%vs 20.5%+3.5pt
- Sep 1, 26PMWill Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?12.0%vs 19.5%-7.5pt
- Sep 1, 26PMWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?43.0%vs 18.5%+24.5pt
- Sep 1, 26PMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-06?69.0%vs 72.5%-3.5pt