The Crossbook Record #4

31 Aug – 6 Sept 2026 · Published scorecard

27 published24 resolved

Crossbook Brier0.1942Market on the same calls0.1625Crossbook is behind by 0.0317

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed.

What resolved · worst scored first

Sep 2, 26PMWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?14.0%vs 78.0%-64.0ptYES0.7396
Sep 1, 26PMToledo vs. Michigan State75.0%vs 21.5%+53.5ptNO0.5625
Sep 7, 26PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?41.0%vs 54.5%-13.5ptYES0.3481
Sep 7, 26PMOklahoma vs. Michigan58.0%vs 68.0%-10.0ptNO0.3364
Sep 5, 26PMWill Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?57.0%vs 82.5%-25.5ptNO0.3249
Sep 7, 26PMWill Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?44.0%vs 18.5%+25.5ptYES0.3136
Sep 7, 26PMSpread: Oklahoma (-1.5)52.0%vs 65.0%-13.0ptNO0.2704
Sep 1, 26PMSpread: Georgia Tech (-7.5)48.0%vs 43.0%+5.0ptNO0.2304
Sep 7, 26PMSeahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.546.0%vs 56.0%-10.0ptNO0.2116
Sep 1, 26PMWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?43.0%vs 18.5%+24.5ptNO0.1849
Sep 7, 26PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?58.0%vs 66.5%-8.5ptYES0.1764
Sep 7, 26PMPatriots vs. Seahawks42.0%vs 37.5%+4.5ptNO0.1764
Sep 7, 26PMIsrael military action against Lebanon on September 10?63.0%vs 77.5%-14.5ptYES0.1369
Sep 3, 26PMLacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?63.0%vs 68.5%-5.5ptYES0.1369
Sep 1, 26PMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-06?69.0%vs 72.5%-3.5ptYES0.0961
Sep 3, 26PMWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?30.0%vs 33.5%-3.5ptNO0.0900
Sep 7, 26PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09?74.0%vs 93.5%-19.5ptYES0.0676
Sep 3, 26PMWill George Russell win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?24.0%vs 28.5%-4.5ptNO0.0576
Sep 2, 26PMWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?24.0%vs 20.5%+3.5ptNO0.0576
Sep 1, 26PMWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?79.0%vs 82.5%-3.5ptYES0.0441
Sep 7, 26PMWill Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?20.0%vs 12.5%+7.5ptNO0.0400
Sep 3, 26PMWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?20.0%vs 26.0%-6.0ptNO0.0400
Sep 1, 26PMWill Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?12.0%vs 6.5%+5.5ptNO0.0144
Sep 2, 26PMWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?94.0%vs 99.1%-5.1ptYES0.0036

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
Aug 28, 26PMWill SG Sacavenense vs. Real SC end in a draw?24.0%vs 98.0%-74.1ptYES0.5776
Aug 28, 26PMWill SC Lourel vs. SC Angrense end in a draw?27.0%vs 97.2%-70.2ptYES0.5329
Aug 18, 26PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?23.0%vs 28.5%-5.5ptYES0.5929
Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt

Open at the close of this edition

Sep 7, 26PMFed rate hike in 2026?63.0%vs 70.5%-7.5pt
Sep 5, 26PMWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?57.0%vs 79.5%-22.5pt
Sep 1, 26PMWill Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?12.0%vs 19.5%-7.5pt