Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
0.9%bid 0.8% / ask 1.0%24h volume $19K · liquidity $310Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.131Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume –as of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts name settlement dates about 2 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.
Settles Nov 8, 28
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Settles Jan 21, 29
If Thomas Massie is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement equivalence unverified
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $18,934 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.