Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

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SettledContract settles 4 Nov 2026Last checked 4 Nov 2026, 04:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-04T04:55:28.620Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

97.2%bid 96.6% / ask 97.9%24h volume $801K · liquidity $54Kas of 4 Nov, 04:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

82.8%against a market price of 78.5% at the timeYES
Logged 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Brier 0.0298
- Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is the nominee of the state's dominant party; Nebraska has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2006, and the resolution rule counts only the Republican nominee as 'Republican', so Ricketts winning resolves YES.
- The only credible challenger, Dan Osborn, is a by-petition independent, and under the settlement rules an independent win does not count for either major party, which removes the risk of a party-label ambiguity.
- The final NYT/Siena poll published October 31, 2026 shows Ricketts leading Osborn 49-43; a 6-point lead four days before Election Day converts at a high rate, though Siena polling of independent candidates in Nebraska (Osborn outran his 2024 polling against Fischer) has historically understated his support, so the true margin is likely tighter.
- With the election on November 3 and the market closing November 4, there is essentially no time for the race fundamentals to change; the main residual risks are polling error and the unusual dynamics of an independent consolidating anti-incumbent votes, which cut both ways.
- A single 6-point poll lead is an anchor, not a distribution; treating it as decisive would be overconfident given Nebraska's recent history of competitive independent Senate bids, so the estimate stays below 0.90 despite the structural lean.
What would change it: Late-breaking evidence that Osborn has consolidated undecided and Democratic-leaning voters, such as a final reputable poll showing the race within 2 points or Osborn ahead, would push this estimate toward or below 0.50.
Settlement sourcet-0289

Polymarket prices this at 97.2%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

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