Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has no two-sided book right now, so there is no price to show. The contract is still listed; nobody is quoting both sides of it.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-04T03:05:28.629Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $14K · liquidity $20Kas of 4 Nov, 03:05 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 21.8%against a market price of 13.5% at the timeNO
Logged 30 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Brier 0.0473
- The base rate favors Republicans: open seats are usually retained by the incumbent party, and NC-11 has been a Republican-held seat, so the prior leans GOP.
- However, the only current signal is a late poll (completed Oct 23) showing Democrat Ager at 50% and Republican Balkcom at 44% — a 6-point deficit five days out is strong signal, not narrative, and pushes the Republican chance well below the base rate.
- A single poll is an anchor, not a distribution: house effects, undecided break, and turnout error mean a 6-point deficit is not insurmountable, so I keep the Republican probability meaningfully above zero rather than treating the poll as decisive.
- The open seat (incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew) removes incumbency advantage and adds candidate-quality uncertainty for the GOP, a modest additional negative.
- A Libertarian on the ballot (Travis Groo) likely draws marginally more from the right-leaning pool, a small further drag on the Republican's share.
What would change it: A late independent poll or final-days reporting showing Balkcom within 1–2 points or leading would push my estimate back toward the 45–55% range.
Settlement sourcet-0287
Polymarket prices this at unavailable. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $13,888 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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