Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-04T04:55:28.620Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
98.9%bid 98.4% / ask 99.4%24h volume $54K · liquidity $52Kas of 4 Nov, 04:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 22.8%against a market price of 40.5% at the timeYES
Logged 1 Nov 2026, 18:01 UTC · Brier 0.5968
- The Republican Party, as the president's party, enters the midterm with a historically high probability of losing seats (18 out of 20 midterms).
- To resolve YES, Republicans must lose at least 29 seats from their current 218. This is a very large loss, exceeding the historical average midterm loss of 27 seats for the president's party.
- A loss of 29 or more seats constitutes a 'wave' election. While possible, such a large loss is significantly less likely than a more modest loss consistent with the historical average.
- Given the extremely low probability of the required seat swing, the probability of the Republican Party holding below 190 seats is minimal.
What would change it: Widespread and reliable polling data indicating a catastrophic, unprecedented collapse in support for the Republican party just before the election.
Settlement sourcet-0294
Polymarket prices this at 98.9%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $54,225 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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