Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-04T04:55:28.620Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
98.8%bid 97.9% / ask 99.8%24h volume $83K · liquidity $15Kas of 4 Nov, 04:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 24.8%against a market price of 43.5% at the timeYES
Logged 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Brier 0.5663
- Republican incumbent Brad Knott won this district by more than 70,000 votes in 2024, a landslide margin that places NC-13 deep in safe-Republican territory; seats of this type flip only a few percent of the time cycle-over-cycle.
- Knott is the incumbent in 2026, adding incumbency advantage on top of the district's partisan lean.
- The district's recent history shows some two-party competitiveness — a Democrat (Wiley Nickel) won it narrowly in 2022 — so this is not a permanently safe seat, but the 2024 map clearly favors Republicans.
- No public polling exists for this race, so there is no signal of an upset; absence of polling in a race this close to Election Day is itself consistent with forecasters and parties treating it as non-competitive.
- A 2026 midterm environment potentially favorable to Democrats (typical out-party midterm dynamics) is the main reason the probability is not lower, but a wave would need to be historically large to erase a 70,000-vote margin in four days.
What would change it: A late-breaking poll, forecasting-model update, or election-eve reporting showing Paul Barringer within single digits of Brad Knott would push this estimate up substantially.
Settlement sourcet-0291
Polymarket prices this at 98.8%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $83,468 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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