Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 2 years apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Dec 31, 26
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Karoline Leavitt by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Karoline Leavitt, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will…
Settles Jan 21, 29
If the first new person to become White House Press Secretary after Issuance is Scott Jennings, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?
Crossbook forecast
- 12.0%against a market price of 19.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 1 Sept 2026, 13:49 UTC
- Structural hurdle is the binding constraint: YES requires (a) Leavitt actually departing, (b) Jennings being selected, and (c) a permanent (not acting/interim) announcement all within 121 days; my structural prior is ~15-20% for any replacement announcement in that window (Trump 2.0 personnel have been far more stable than term one) times ~10-15% conditional odds for Jennings as an outside CNN commentator versus likely internal successors (deputy press secretary, Steven Cheung, campaign comms alumni), which alone yields only ~2-4%.
- Signal vs narrative: Jennings' genuine assets are signal (Trump has publicly praised his TV combativeness and he was reportedly considered for comms roles in 2024-25); the 'Trump picks TV fighters' story is narrative and shouldn't carry much weight against the internal-promotion norm for this specific job.
- I am nonetheless pulling well above my structural number because the cross-venue consistency (19.5% Polymarket, 24% Kalshi on ~$8k daily volume) likely reflects post-cutoff reporting I cannot see, such as rumors of Leavitt's departure or Jennings being actively floated; thin liquidity caps how much I defer, leaving me at ~12% with the divergence plausibly explained by a news event rather than noise.
- Time decay matters: each passing week without a vacancy announcement compresses the window for a permanent nomination-and-announcement, and the exclusion of acting appointments removes a common transitional path that would otherwise inflate YES odds.
What would change it: Credible reporting or a White House statement that Leavitt is staying in the role through 2026 (or that an internal successor has already been chosen) would collapse this to low single digits; conversely, confirmed reporting of her imminent departure would push it toward or above the market's ~20-24%.
Context
Kalshi prices this at 19% while Polymarket has it at 16%, a gap of 3.0 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $5,067 on the busier venue.
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