Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 18 Apr 2027Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

86.5%bid 84.0% / ask 89.0%24h volume – · liquidity $13Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:30.729Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

89.0%bid 86.0% / ask 92.0%24h volume –as of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 2 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Apr 18, 27

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually ap…

Settles Jun 30, 27

If Nathalie Arthaud is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $0 on the busier venue.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.