Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-01T00:20:26.821Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
0.8%bid 0.5% / ask 1.1%24h volume $38K · liquidity $49Kas of 1 Oct, 00:20 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 36.0%against a market price of 30.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 21 Sept 2026, 18:01 UTC
- The shutdown was explicitly framed as a precaution with teams 'securing the pipeline and assessing its safety', not as repair of major physical damage, which supports a relatively quick restart and an official all-clear announcement.
- The Ministry committed to announcing further developments 'in due course', keeping an announcement within the window institutionally plausible, and partial-capacity operation would qualify, lowering the bar for a YES resolution.
- Time decay cuts hard against YES: as of September 16 officials had given no timetable for repairs or resumption, and only 9 days remain in the window with no announcement of any kind confirmed through September 21.
- The shutdown followed multiple attacks in the Riyadh and Madinah regions; if the underlying security threat persists, the government may delay declaring the pipeline operational for security rather than technical reasons, which pushes resolution past September 30.
- The resolution rule requires an affirmative government statement that the pipeline is presently operating; quiet resumption without a qualifying announcement resolves NO, an extra hurdle beyond mere physical restart.
What would change it: A Saudi Ministry of Energy or Aramco statement before September 30 confirming the pipeline is operating (even at reduced capacity) would resolve this YES immediately; conversely, any official statement indicating extended repairs or ongoing security closure would push my estimate well below 0.20.
t-0209
Context
Polymarket prices this at 0.8%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $38,026 on the busier venue. It closes today, so short term moves may say more about the settlement mechanics than about the underlying question.
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