Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

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Settled, no longer listedContract settles 4 Nov 2026Last checked 4 Nov 2026, 04:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-04T04:55:28.620Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

2.5%bid 1.5% / ask 3.6%24h volume $104K · liquidity $34Kas of 4 Nov, 04:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

32.8%against a market price of 22.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 30 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
- The qualifying condition is fully satisfied: Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on California-resident billionaires, is already on the November 3, 2026 ballot and needs only a simple majority, so the question reduces entirely to whether it wins the vote.
- Signal: the Yes campaign is well funded at ~$33M, and a billionaire-only tax is a populist, narrowly-targeted measure in a strongly Democratic state, which historically polls better than broad tax increases — this pushes above the generic tax-initiative base rate.
- Counter-signal: competing Propositions 41 and 42 on the same ballot contain provisions that would invalidate Prop 40; split or confused voting on rival measures and the likely well-funded opposition they represent materially reduce Prop 40's chances of prevailing.
- The absence of any recent public polling five days before the election means I cannot anchor on voter intent; with no poll, I stay close to the base rate and keep confidence low rather than following the funding narrative.
- As a constitutional amendment plus statute, Prop 40 faces California voters' historical skepticism toward complex ballot-box constitutional changes, another mild drag consistent with the base rate.
What would change it: A late, credible statewide poll showing Prop 40 support well below 50% (or Props 41/42 with majority support) would push my estimate down toward 0.25 or lower.
t-0286

Polymarket prices this at 2.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $104,248 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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