Jaguars vs. Titans

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTCLast checked 11 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-11T20:30:27.149Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

83.5%bid 83.0% / ask 84.0%24h volume $30K · liquidity $129Kas of 11 Nov, 20:30 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

78.8%against a market price of 83.5% at the timeOpen

Logged 11 Nov 2026, 18:01 UTC

Jacksonville's 6-2 record and recent dominant 33-10 win over Baltimore demonstrate significantly superior current form compared to Tennessee's 1-7 record and recent overtime loss.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but Jacksonville's injury concerns are concentrated in depth positions while Tennessee has a key defensive player on injured reserve, potentially weakening their already struggling defense further.
Tennessee holds a slight historical head-to-head advantage (35-28 all-time), but recent performance and current roster composition are far more predictive than decades-old historical matchups.
Divisional games can produce closer outcomes than talent gap suggests, and Tennessee has had extra rest (last played Nov 1 vs Jacksonville's Nov 5 game), slightly moderating the otherwise strong favorite case.

What would change it: Jacksonville suffers a major injury to Trevor Lawrence or another key starter before Sunday, or Tennessee's extra week of preparation reveals significant defensive adjustments that exploit Jacksonville's offensive weaknesses.

-4.7 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Teams with records like Jacksonville's (6-2,.750) facing teams like Tennessee's (1-7,.125) win approximately 78-82% of the time in the modern NFL era, per historical analysis of divisional mismatches (general NFL knowledge, not explicitly in retrieved facts).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.

Formed blind at 74.0%, without sight of the price; published at 78.8%, the market’s 83.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

What this call was reading

Jacksonville's regular-season record was 6-2 after its November 5 game. as of 2026-11-05 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
Jacksonville's most recent result was a 33-10 win over Baltimore on November 5, a 23-point margin. as of 2026-11-05 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
Tennessee's regular-season record was 1-7 after its November 1 game. as of 2026-11-01 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Tennessee's most recent result was a 43-36 overtime loss to Cincinnati on November 1, a 7-point margin. as of 2026-11-01 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Jacksonville listed running back Bhayshul Tuten as questionable with ankle and foot injuries. as of 2026-11-11 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
Jacksonville listed defensive end Travon Walker as questionable with a rib injury. as of 2026-11-11 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
Jacksonville listed Ezra Cleveland, Antonio Johnson, Jakobi Meyers, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Branson Combs, and Jarrian Jones as limited participants with injuries and without a game status designation. as of 2026-11-11 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
Tennessee listed running back Tyjae Spears, receiver Carnell Tate, punter Tommy Townsend, and cornerback Jaylon Jones as questionable. as of 2026-11-11 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
Tennessee linebacker James Williams Sr. was on injured reserve. as of 2026-11-11 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
From 1995 through January 4, 2026, Tennessee won 35 of 63 regular-season and playoff games against Jacksonville, while Jacksonville won 28. as of 2026-01-04 · truegamestats.app
Jacksonville is scheduled to play Tennessee at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on November 15, 2026, at 1:00 p.m. ET. as of 2026-11-11 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 83.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $30,285 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

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This call is line t-0299 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.