The Crossbook Record #13

2–8 Nov 2026 · Published scorecard

3 published3 resolved

Crossbook Brier0.1129Market on the same calls0.0828Crossbook is behind by 0.0300

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed. This is a small sample and is not evidence of an edge either way.

What resolved · worst scored first

Nov 2, 26PMLoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs46.8%vs 41.5%+5.3ptNO0.2186
Nov 2, 26PMJaguars vs. Ravens75.3%vs 79.5%-4.3ptYES0.0613
Nov 2, 26PMLoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs24.3%vs 18.5%+5.8ptNO0.0588

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

Oct 31, 26PMWill Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?13.8%vs 22.5%-8.8pt
Oct 30, 26PMBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?32.8%vs 22.5%+10.3pt
Oct 18, 26PMWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?36.3%vs 30.5%+5.8pt
Oct 14, 26PMUS recession by end of 2027?23.3%vs 33.5%-10.3pt
Sep 8, 26PMWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?37.0%vs 20.3%+16.7pt
Sep 7, 26PMFed rate hike in 2026?63.0%vs 70.5%-7.5pt
Sep 5, 26PMWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?57.0%vs 79.5%-22.5pt
Sep 1, 26PMWill Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?12.0%vs 19.5%-7.5pt
Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt