The Crossbook Record #12

26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026 · In progress, closes Sunday

10 published0 resolved

Crossbook Brier–Market on the same calls–

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed. This is a small sample and is not evidence of an edge either way.

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

Oct 25, 26PMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?83.3%vs 92.5%-9.3pt
Oct 25, 26PM2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House19.3%vs 7.5%+11.8pt
Oct 23, 26PMWill Spirit Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?23.0%vs 29.0%-6.0pt
Oct 18, 26PMWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?36.3%vs 30.5%+5.8pt
Oct 18, 26PMWill the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?58.4%vs 63.8%-5.4pt
Oct 14, 26PMUS recession by end of 2027?23.3%vs 33.5%-10.3pt
Sep 25, 26PMWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?55.0%vs 67.5%-12.5pt
Sep 8, 26PMWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?37.0%vs 20.3%+16.7pt
Sep 7, 26PMFed rate hike in 2026?63.0%vs 70.5%-7.5pt
Sep 5, 26PMWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?57.0%vs 79.5%-22.5pt
Sep 1, 26PMWill Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?12.0%vs 19.5%-7.5pt
Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt

Still open

Oct 29, 26PMWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?19.8%vs 25.5%-5.8pt
Oct 29, 26PMWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?36.8%vs 31.5%+5.2pt
Oct 29, 26KSOhio Governor winner?: Vivek Ramaswamy32.0%vs 20.0%+12.0pt
Oct 29, 26PMFC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5 Corners51.7%vs 48.5%+3.2pt
Oct 28, 26PMScience City Jena vs. Fraport Skyliners20.2%vs 11.5%+8.8pt
Oct 28, 26PMBrowns vs. Steelers39.8%vs 35.5%+4.3pt
Oct 27, 26PMLoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage70.8%vs 79.5%-8.8pt
Oct 27, 26PMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-31?84.3%vs 88.5%-4.2pt
Oct 27, 26PMLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage73.8%vs 79.5%-5.8pt
Oct 26, 26PMWill Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?47.8%vs 40.5%+7.2pt