The Crossbook Record #11

19–25 Oct 2026 · Published scorecard

13 published10 resolved

Crossbook Brier0.2126Market on the same calls0.1888Crossbook is behind by 0.0238

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed. This is a small sample and is not evidence of an edge either way.

What resolved · worst scored first

Oct 19, 26PMLoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage69.8%vs 66.5%+3.2ptNO0.4865
Oct 20, 26PMChiefs vs. Seahawks53.8%vs 44.5%+9.2ptNO0.2889
Oct 21, 26PMBuccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.546.8%vs 50.5%-3.7ptYES0.2836
Oct 21, 26PMBengals vs. Ravens47.8%vs 51.5%-3.8ptYES0.2730
Oct 20, 26PMSpread: Lions (-3.5)51.7%vs 47.5%+4.2ptNO0.2678
Oct 20, 26PMSpread: Vikings (-6.5)45.3%vs 48.5%-3.2ptNO0.2048
Oct 19, 26PMUFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)37.3%vs 40.5%-3.3ptNO0.1388
Oct 21, 26PMLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage72.3%vs 78.5%-6.3ptYES0.0770
Oct 22, 26PMWill Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?25.8%vs 30.5%-4.7ptNO0.0663
Oct 25, 26PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?80.3%vs 94.5%-14.2ptYES0.0390

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

Oct 18, 26PMWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?36.3%vs 30.5%+5.8pt
Oct 18, 26PMWill the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?58.4%vs 63.8%-5.4pt
Oct 14, 26PMUS recession by end of 2027?23.3%vs 33.5%-10.3pt
Sep 25, 26PMWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?55.0%vs 67.5%-12.5pt
Sep 21, 26PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?45.0%vs 52.5%-7.5ptNO0.2025
Sep 8, 26PMWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?37.0%vs 20.3%+16.7pt
Sep 7, 26PMFed rate hike in 2026?63.0%vs 70.5%-7.5pt
Sep 5, 26PMWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?57.0%vs 79.5%-22.5pt
Sep 1, 26PMWill Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?12.0%vs 19.5%-7.5pt
Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt

Open at the close of this edition

Oct 25, 26PMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?83.3%vs 92.5%-9.3pt
Oct 25, 26PM2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House19.3%vs 7.5%+11.8pt
Oct 23, 26PMWill Spirit Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?23.0%vs 29.0%-6.0pt