LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTCContract settles 7 Nov 2026Last checked 6 Nov 2026, 21:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-06T21:55:26.932Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

17.5%bid 17.0% / ask 18.0%24h volume $736K · liquidity $430Kas of 6 Nov, 21:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

24.3%against a market price of 18.5% at the timeNO
Logged 2 Nov 2026, 16:02 UTC · Brier 0.0588
- Seed and Swiss-stage evidence modestly favor T1: both are their league's third seed, but T1 entered the Swiss draw in Tier 3 versus Karmine Corp's Tier 4 (as Play-In winner), and T1 finished Swiss 3-1 versus KC's 3-2.
- Recent form is comparable: both teams beat Movistar KOI 2-0 within days of each other, suggesting the gap between them is not large at this tournament.
- Strongest case-specific signal for KC: they already beat this T1 roster 2-1 in the Esports World Cup semifinal in July 2026, demonstrating they can win a series against them; this pushes well above the low base rate for LEC-vs-LCK BO5s.
- Discounting factors back toward the base rate: that win was a BO3 in a mid-season event, whereas this is a Worlds BO5 — T1's historically strongest format and stage — and T1's Swiss record at this Worlds is better.
- Rosters are confirmed standard for both sides (Canna/Yike/kyeahoo/Caliste/Busio vs Doran/Oner/Faker/Peyz/Keria) with no reported absences, so no availability adjustment; however no sportsbook line or injury check was retrievable, capping confidence.
What would change it: A pre-match development showing T1 heavily favored — e.g., a consensus book line implying KC below ~20% or a KC starter unavailable — would move the estimate down; conversely confirmed T1 roster or health problems would move it up.
Settlement sourcet-0295

Polymarket prices this at 17.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $736,342 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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