LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

Logged 2 Nov 2026, 16:02 UTC · Brier 0.0588

• Seed and Swiss-stage evidence modestly favor T1: both are their league's third seed, but T1 entered the Swiss draw in Tier 3 versus Karmine Corp's Tier 4 (as Play-In winner), and T1 finished Swiss 3-1 versus KC's 3-2.
• Recent form is comparable: both teams beat Movistar KOI 2-0 within days of each other, suggesting the gap between them is not large at this tournament.
• Strongest case-specific signal for KC: they already beat this T1 roster 2-1 in the Esports World Cup semifinal in July 2026, demonstrating they can win a series against them; this pushes well above the low base rate for LEC-vs-LCK BO5s.
• Discounting factors back toward the base rate: that win was a BO3 in a mid-season event, whereas this is a Worlds BO5 — T1's historically strongest format and stage — and T1's Swiss record at this Worlds is better.
• Rosters are confirmed standard for both sides (Canna/Yike/kyeahoo/Caliste/Busio vs Doran/Oner/Faker/Peyz/Keria) with no reported absences, so no availability adjustment; however no sportsbook line or injury check was retrievable, capping confidence.

What would change it: A pre-match development showing T1 heavily favored — e.g., a consensus book line implying KC below ~20% or a KC starter unavailable — would move the estimate down; conversely confirmed T1 roster or health problems would move it up.

+5.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Historically, LEC teams have won only a small fraction (~10-20%) of Worlds knockout BO5 series against LCK opposition, and T1 in particular has an exceptional Worlds BO5 record against non-Korean teams; no retrieved fact supplies this rate, so it rests on slow-moving domain knowledge of the class.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.

Formed blind at 30.0%, without sight of the price; published at 24.3%, the market’s 18.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.