Lions vs. Bills: O/U 56.5

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 00:15 UTCLast checked 16 Sept 2026, 11:50 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-16T11:50:28.326Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

43.5%bid 43.0% / ask 44.0%24h volume $30 · liquidity $15Kas of 16 Sept, 11:50 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

44.0%against a market price of 39.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 15 Sept 2026, 01:27 UTC
- The retrieved base rate for closing totals of 54-56 is a 46.3% over rate; this line at 56.5 sits just above that band, and totals are set near efficient levels, so the over should price slightly below that 46.3% figure, not above it.
- Signal for a higher-scoring environment: both teams' Week 1 games were shootouts — Lions 31-30 over the Saints (61 combined) and Bills 36-31 over the Texans (67 combined) — consistent with both offenses producing and both defenses allowing points.
- Countervailing signal: the Lions are missing multiple offensive linemen (Cade Mays on IR, Mahogany and Miller nonparticipants), which modestly depresses Detroit's offensive efficiency and pushes back toward the under.
- Bills' questionable players (Ty Johnson, T.J. Sanders) are low-impact for the total; neither is a starting offensive engine, so this is noise rather than signal.
- Netting a shootout-leaning week-1 read against a high line and Lions OL injuries, I stay marginally below the base rate; a single week of each team's results is one comparison, an anchor rather than a distribution.
What would change it: Late-week confirmation that Detroit's depleted offensive line will start multiple backups, or a sharp market move of the total to 57.5+, would push my over probability down toward 0.40.

Context

Polymarket prices this at 43.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $30 on the busier venue. It closes in 2 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

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