LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Thu, 5 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTCContract settles 6 Nov 2026Last checked 5 Nov 2026, 21:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-05T21:55:28.146Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

41.5%bid 41.0% / ask 42.0%24h volume $1.1M · liquidity $1.2Mas of 5 Nov, 21:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

46.8%against a market price of 41.5% at the timeNO

Logged 2 Nov 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.2186

The market is a straight win/loss on a single BO5 between two elite teams, and the facts establish both are credible contenders: Dplus KIA is LCK’s fourth seed while Bilibili Gaming is LPL’s second seed.
Recent season-level performance slightly favors Bilibili Gaming on raw consistency, with a 53–14 professional series record versus Dplus KIA’s 17–9 LCK regular-season mark, but the records are not directly comparable across leagues and contexts.
Worlds form leans Dplus KIA: DK went 3–0 in Swiss while BLG went 3–2, and DK’s latest pre-quarterfinal result was also a clean 2–0 win.
Both teams have already played at Worlds and have listed starting lineups, reducing uncertainty from rust or missing starters, though injury/suspension status could not be fully established.
The supplied historical note that one of four 2025 Worlds quarterfinal BO5s went to game five is a weak sample but directionally supports treating this as a competitive playoff spot rather than a mismatch.

What would change it: A verified last-minute starter absence or a strong sportsbook consensus showing a large BLG/DK edge would materially move the estimate.

Settlement source

+5.3 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Using the retrieved structural and recent-form facts plus the lack of a sportsbook line, the appropriate reference class is elite LoL Worlds playoff matches between top teams, where the resolution rule is treated as roughly 50% for either side; the only explicit quantitative rate supplied is that 25% of 2025 Worlds quarterfinal BO5s went to a fifth game, which supports competitiveness rather than a side edge.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.

Formed blind at 52.0%, without sight of the price; published at 46.8%, the market’s 41.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 6 Nov 2026, 01:23 UTC · recorded 6 Nov 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Dplus KIA is an LCK team and entered Worlds 2026 as the league’s fourth seed.[web:7] as of 2026-11-01 · sheepesports.com · within 14 days of this call
Bilibili Gaming is an LPL team and entered Worlds 2026 as the league’s second seed.[web:37] as of 2026-11-01 · sports.khan.co.kr · within 14 days of this call
Dplus KIA’s 2026 LCK regular-season record was 17–9.[web:72] as of 2026-09-04 · dotesports.com
Bilibili Gaming’s 2026 professional series record was 53–14.[web:61] as of 2026-11-01 · mid.gg · within 14 days of this call
Dplus KIA’s latest result before the quarterfinal was a 2–0 win over Movistar KOI on October 25.[web:62] as of 2026-10-25 · draftlol.ai · within 14 days of this call
Dplus KIA completed the Worlds 2026 Swiss Stage with a 3–0 series record.[web:17] as of 2026-10-31 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Bilibili Gaming completed the Worlds 2026 Swiss Stage with a 3–2 series record.[web:17] as of 2026-10-31 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Dplus KIA had already played Worlds 2026 matches before this quarterfinal, so it is not its first game of the season.[web:62] as of 2026-10-25 · draftlol.ai · within 14 days of this call
Bilibili Gaming had already played Worlds 2026 matches before this quarterfinal, so it is not its first game of the season.[web:17] as of 2026-10-31 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Dplus KIA’s listed lineup is Siwoo, Lucid, ShowMaker, Smash, and Career.[web:49] as of 2026-11-02 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Bilibili Gaming’s listed starting lineup is Bin, Xun, Knight, Viper, and ON.[web:60] as of 2026-11-01 · hexgate.app · within 14 days of this call
One of the four 2025 Worlds quarterfinal best-of-five series went to a fifth game, a rate of 25%.[web:75] as of 2025-10-31 · liquipedia.net

Polymarket prices this at 41.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,138,169 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

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This call is line t-0296 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.