Will the fight be won by submission?

Logged 20 Aug 2026, 23:27 UTC · Brier 0.0400

• Without the specific matchup disclosed, the correct anchor is the historical submission rate of ~15–19%, not a story about either fighter.
• The market's 32.5% implies traders believe this is a grappler-heavy matchup (e.g., a submission specialist like a high-level BJJ practitioner); if that priors-based information is real, the true rate could plausibly sit in the 25–35% band, so I shade modestly above base rate rather than fully reverting.
• Signal vs. narrative: the only hard signal available is the market price itself (thin book, $3.5k resting — low-information), so the divergence between my estimate and 32.5% is plausibly explained by matchup-specific knowledge I lack, but thin liquidity also means the price may be noisy.

What would change it: If the named fighters are both strike-heavy with low combined submission rates (e.g., neither has a submission win in 5+ fights), my estimate should drop toward 0.10.

-12.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Across major MMA promotions (UFC), roughly 15–19% of fights end by submission, with decisions now the most common outcome.

Chosen by hand.