The Crossbook Record #9

5–11 Oct 2026 · Published scorecard

17 published17 resolved

Crossbook Brier0.1915Market on the same calls0.1858Crossbook is behind by 0.0057

How to read this. Crossbook states its own probability for a market before that market resolves, and freezes the market’s price at the same instant so the two can be compared afterwards. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what actually happened: lower is better, 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is what flipping a coin earns. The market’s own price is scored on the identical calls, and that comparison is the only one that means anything, because a forecast that merely agrees with the price inherits the market’s accuracy without adding to it.

Every call below was logged before its market resolved. Wins and losses count the same, nothing is deleted, and calls that turn out not to have been forecasts at all are kept and labelled rather than removed. This is a small sample and is not evidence of an edge either way.

What resolved · worst scored first

Oct 6, 26PMWill SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?29.5%vs 25.0%+4.5ptYES0.4970
Oct 6, 26PMRavens vs. Falcons42.3%vs 37.5%+4.7ptYES0.3335
Oct 10, 26PMWill Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VIII?44.0%vs 47.0%-3.0ptYES0.3136
Oct 8, 26PMBills vs. Rams44.8%vs 38.5%+6.3ptYES0.3053
Oct 11, 26PMColorado State vs. Texas State: O/U 65.547.8%vs 53.5%-5.8ptYES0.2730
Oct 8, 26PMGeorgia vs. Alabama: O/U 51.550.2%vs 46.5%+3.7ptNO0.2525
Oct 6, 26PMWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?49.8%vs 57.5%-7.7ptNO0.2475
Oct 11, 26PMWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?55.8%vs 51.5%+4.2ptYES0.1958
Oct 5, 26PMWill Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-11?57.3%vs 61.5%-4.2ptYES0.1828
Oct 10, 26PMPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?39.0%vs 33.0%+6.0ptNO0.1521
Oct 9, 26PMLoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs61.8%vs 67.5%-5.8ptYES0.1463
Oct 6, 26PMEagles vs. Jaguars34.8%vs 26.5%+8.2ptNO0.1208
Oct 11, 26PMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13?67.8%vs 77.5%-9.8ptYES0.1040
Oct 9, 26PMWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?24.8%vs 10.5%+14.3ptNO0.0613
Oct 9, 26PMWill Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO?19.5%vs 16.0%+3.5ptNO0.0380
Oct 5, 26PMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-10?85.8%vs 91.5%-5.8ptYES0.0203
Oct 6, 26PMWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?10.8%vs 14.5%-3.7ptNO0.0116

Still open from earlier editions

Logged in a previous week and not settled by the time this one closed. They belong to the edition that made them and are scored there, so none of the figures above includes them.

Sep 25, 26PMWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?55.0%vs 67.5%-12.5pt
Sep 21, 26PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?45.0%vs 52.5%-7.5ptNO0.2025
Sep 8, 26PMWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?37.0%vs 20.3%+16.7pt
Sep 7, 26PMFed rate hike in 2026?63.0%vs 70.5%-7.5pt
Sep 5, 26PMWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?57.0%vs 79.5%-22.5pt
Sep 1, 26PMWill Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?12.0%vs 19.5%-7.5pt
Aug 29, 26PMRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?57.0%vs 48.5%+8.5pt
Aug 28, 26PMWill SC Lourel vs. SC Angrense end in a draw?27.0%vs 97.2%-70.2ptYES0.5329
Aug 14, 26PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?27.0%vs 22.9%+4.1pt