Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTCLast checked 19 Sept 2026, 13:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-19T13:55:29.049Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

61.5%bid 61.0% / ask 62.0%24h volume $786K · liquidity $1.5Mas of 19 Sept, 13:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

53.0%against a market price of 59.5% at the timeYES
Logged 15 Sept 2026, 20:39 UTC · Brier 0.2209
- Structural edge: Newcastle are at home at St James' Park against Hull City, a fixture profile that historically lands in the home-favourite class with a win rate around 60%.
- Signal downward: Newcastle have a substantial availability crisis, with Burn, Joelinton, Ramsey, Osula, Gonzalez, Jaouen, and Elanga all unavailable or doubtful — seven senior absences meaningfully weakens even a strong home side.
- Signal downward (weak): a 4-1 away loss to Leeds five days prior suggests poor current form; single-match form is noisy but the margin combined with the injury list is corroborating evidence of a stretched squad.
- Unknowns cap confidence: Hull's form, availability, and season record could not be established, so the adjustment for opponent strength is limited to the prior that Hull are likely the weaker side.
- Resolution is 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so no extra-time path exists — a draw resolves NO, which is already priced into the win-rate base rate rather than added on top.
What would change it: Team news on matchday showing most of the seven doubtful Newcastle players fit to start, or confirmed news that Hull are missing multiple key players, would push the estimate back toward 60%+.
Settlement sourcet-0198

Polymarket prices this at 61.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $785,744 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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