Tennessee wins

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingContract settles 20 Sept 2026Last checked 16 Sept 2026, 12:45 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-16T12:45:26.461Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

24.5%bid 24.0% / ask 25.0%24h volume $72K · liquidity –as of 16 Sept, 12:45 UTCView this market's series on Kalshi

Crossbook forecast

30.0%against a market price of 25.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 15 Sept 2026, 17:21 UTC
- The Titans are almost certainly home underdogs: they lost 23-10 at home to the Jets in Week 1 while the Eagles beat the Commanders, and Philadelphia entered 2026 as a stronger franchise, putting Tennessee in the home-underdog class.
- Tennessee's Week 1 loss to a mid-tier Jets team by 13 points is genuine negative signal about their current form, pushing below the home-underdog base rate.
- The Eagles' narrow 24-22 win over Washington is mildly reassuring signal that they are not in dominant early-season form, a small offset to the Titans' weakness.
- Personnel news is roughly neutral-to-negative: Cedric Gray returning from concussion protocol helps, but Nazeeh Johnson's six-game suspension thins an already suspect secondary against a strong Eagles passing attack.
- With only two teams' Week 1 results available and no injury, spread, or quarterback information retrieved, the evidence base is thin; this estimate leans heavily on the class base rate rather than case-specific facts.
What would change it: Release of the betting line showing Tennessee favored, or news of a key Eagles injury (e.g., to their starting quarterback), would move this estimate materially upward.

Context

Kalshi prices this at 24.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $72,366 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.