Jaguars vs. Ravens

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 01:15 UTCLast checked 6 Nov 2026, 01:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-06T01:10:28.552Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

77.5%bid 77.0% / ask 78.0%24h volume $1.1M · liquidity $2.7Mas of 6 Nov, 01:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

75.3%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeYES
Logged 2 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC · Brier 0.0613
- Baltimore's starting QB Lamar Jackson is out (thumb surgery, injured reserve) and backup Tyler Huntley left the last game with a toe injury and did not return; a team likely down to its third-string quarterback is a major downgrade well beyond the generic road-favorite case.
- Form signal favors Jacksonville: 5–2 record coming off a 35-point win, versus Baltimore at 4–4 coming off a 26-point home loss to Buffalo; both results point the same direction and are real signal, not just narrative.
- Counterweights keeping this below ~75%: the game is in Baltimore (home field is worth roughly 2–3 points), it is a short-week Thursday game which compresses preparation and adds variance, Huntley's status for Thursday is unresolved (he could play), and Jacksonville's Jakobi Meyers is questionable.
- The spread-cover base rate is only an anchor; moneyline outcomes for road favorites with a large QB edge historically run higher than the cover rate implies, justifying the upward adjustment from 62% to ~71%.
What would change it: Confirmation before Thursday that Tyler Huntley is fully cleared and starting, coupled with bad Jacksonville injury news, would move my estimate down toward 60%; conversely Baltimore announcing a third-string starter would push it toward 78%.
Settlement sourcet-0297

Polymarket prices this at 77.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,054,070 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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