Crossbook
live

Wednesday, 11 November 2026

Kalshi and Polymarket disagree.
Crossbook keeps score.

We read both venues’ terms, call it before it settles, and grade every call.

7.5 pts apart on the same question.

Crossbook 23.3%. The base rate for a recession onset in any given ~15-month window is about 18%, derived from 12 NBER recessions across 75 years; the resolution rule's alternative two-consecutive-negative-GDP trigger broadens this only slightly, since such episodes nearly always coincide with NBER recessions.

PM KS

  1. US recession by end of 2027?
    Reviewed equivalent
    View data
    Data behind the comparison: US recession by end of 2027?
    Polymarket28.0%bid 27.0% · ask 29.0% · read 11 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC
    Kalshi20.5%bid 20.0% · ask 21.0% · read 11 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC
    Gap7.5 ptsEquivalent settlement terms · reviewed
    Crossbook t-024823.3%−10.3 pts against 33.5% at the call, 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
  2. Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
  3. Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
  4. Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
  5. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
  6. Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
  7. Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
  8. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Bid/ask midpoints, read 11 Nov, 20:15 UTC. Bracket = terms reviewed as the same. Whole board →

Every call, once a week, already graded.

Monday mornings. Last week's widest Kalshi–Polymarket gaps, plus every call that resolved and what it scored against the market. Wins and losses in the same type. One email a week, never more.

Open calls

Widest disagreement with the market first.

  • Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

    Crossbook 37.0%market was 20.3% on 8 Sept+16.6 pts then
    now 0.5% as of 19 Oct, 09:05 UTCcontract settles 31 Dec

    Grindeanu is PSD's unanimously nominated candidate and leads both PSD and the Chamber of Deputies, giving him the strongest institutional platform of any contender.

  • US recession by end of 2027?

    Crossbook 23.3%market was 33.5% on 14 Oct-10.3 pts then
    now 28.0% as of 11 Nov, 20:20 UTCcontract settles 31 Dec

    The base rate for a recession onset in any given ~15-month window is about 18%, derived from 12 NBER recessions across 75 years; the resolution rule's alternative two-consecutive-negative-GDP trigger broadens this only slightly, since such episodes nearly always coincide with NBER recessions.

  • Spread: Washington State (-8.5)

    Crossbook 40.8%market was 50.5% on 11 Nov-9.8 pts then
    now 50.5% as of 11 Nov, 20:20 UTCevent 15 Nov

    The base rate for home favorites of 5-9.5 points covering is 51.8%, but Washington State enters this game with a 1-8 record, an unusually weak profile for an 8.5-point favorite.

3 calls are past the close and awaiting the venue’s settlement. Every call, with its full reasoning →

Brier 0.2061 over 174 resolved, against the market's 0.1673 — behind by 0.0388. Every row is public.

See the full record →

Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.